| Mar. 12, 1997 | ||
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Forecasting the future in world mission:
Some future faces of missions by David B. Barrett
Originally published in Missiology: an international review
In the year 1883, the Second General Conference of Protestant Missionaries
of Japan met and announced: "Japan is now embracing Christianity
with a rapidity unexampled since the days of Constantine
Japan will be predominantly Christian within 20 years." But
one hundred years later, Japan still remains with less than 2
percent of its population as Christians affiliated to churches.
The history of world mission is full of pronouncements similar
to this in which confident, exact predictions have been made,
only to come unraveled within a decade or two. Forecasting the
future in world mission would seem a hazardous undertaking.
Over the past hundred years, however, an entirely
new factor has entered on the world scene: the emergence of futurology
as a professional discipline at the levels of university, industry,
commerce, science, research, government and other spheres. Futurology,
also often termed futuristics, refers to the serious study of
the future. During the 20th century, many countries
have founded learned societies and research institutions devoted
to this subject. In the USA, in 1966 the World Future Society
was founded in Washington, D.C. By 1987, it had 23,000 members,
including scientists and many churchmen, clergy, theologians,
missionaries, mission executives, and even a number of missiologists.
Its monthly review of the 60 or so newest books on the subject,
Future Survey, is an indispensable guide to the vast range
of secular issues being dealt with today. By the late 1980s, futurology
has become a recognized profession, an international science,
and a multidimensional art of proven value in many walks of life.
Literature and Sources
Futurology nowadays can call on a vast body of secular sources
and materials. The literature and other kinds of documentation
on all future periods are immense as witness the many specialist
bibliographies on the future now available. Among publications
in 1987 are a volume that includes a selected bibliography of
130 modern classics of futures thinking (Marien & Jennings
1987), and another which includes an annotated list of 340 futures-relevant
periodicals (Future Survey Annual 1986).
The present analysis draws its examples mainly from English language
literature. It must be noted t hat, in addition, there exists
also a vast and growing literature on the future in French, German,
Italian, Portugese, Russian, Spanish and a number of other major
lingua francas of the world.
Futurology and Mission
Studies of the future face of Christian missions have likewise
mushroomed over the past hundred years. A recent survey entitled
"Evolution of the Futurology of Christianity and Religion,
1893-1980" showed that, of the 280 distinct titles of books
and articles listed, some 10 percent included the word "mission"
in their titles or subtitles (Barrett 1982). Many were published
in missiological journals. Around 140 items, or 50 percent of
all titles, dealt with the future of mission in one sense or another.
Soon after its founding in 1912, the International Review of
Missions began publishing regular articles on the future face
of missions in China, India, Iran, Burma, Africa, Islam, and so
on. The first in this century's spate of titles dealing with the
whole subject was F. S. Thompson's article "The Future of
Missions" (IRM 1933). Similar titles were taken by
other missiologists (Paton 1942), including a book of essays,
The Future of the Christian World Mission (Danker &
Kang 1971). Even Lesslie Newbigin, prolific writer on current
mission issues, has written on the subject (1977).
With this history of concern, it is not surprising that the entire
issue of the IRM for January 1987 was entitled "The
Future of Mission," containing 21 articles related to the
subject. One of these articles, using the same title, foresees
that "the church of the future will be a minority church
in most parts of the world" (Shenk 1987:61). In similar fashion,
the January 1987 issue of the journal Missiology was entitled
on its cover "Future of the World Christian Mission."
And our global forum, the International Association for Mission
Studies (IAMS), with its journal Mission Studies, has announced
as the theme of its Seventh General Congress in Rome in July 1988,
"Christian Mission Towards a Third Millennium: A Gospel of
Hope."
The subject of this article has thus become a central concern
of all persons committed to the Christian world mission.
A Typology of the Future: 10 Periods
Before we start thinking in any detail about forecasting the future
face either of missions (the organized missionary enterprise)
or of mission (the whole Biblical concept of God's commission
to the church to serve the world), we need some overall scheme
to enable us to get a grhtml on the entire secular discipline and
its wealth of materials. I have attempted to provide one approach
to this by creating a tenfold typology of the future. This divides
the future into ten epochs or periods labeled as follows:
We will shortly be examining these periods, the literature they
have generated, and their relevance to our own subject.
Forecasting in Mission
Forecasting has now become a major scientific profession with
widespread applications and methods. There is an International
Institute of Forecasters, which publishes a learned quarterly,
The International Journal of Forecasting. Subject matter
majors in econometrics, and most treatments are heavily mathematical
often based on complex computer models.
Forecasting in mission, as we are using the phrase, is not the
same as prophecy, prediction, predestination, fortunetelling,
foresight, prevision, clairvoyance, divining, soothsaying, horoscopy
(drawing up horoscopes) or crystal ball gazing. What forecasting
is, as understood here, is a range of ways of looking at the future
embodying at least the following ten elements:
In all such forecasting, it is necessary to strike a balance between
caution and exaggeration, conservatism and undue boldness of thought.
Alternate Futures or Faces of Mission
The main approach to futurology that we set forth here is therefore
that espoused by this discipline known as futurology, futuristics,
future studies, future thinking, or futures research-namely, the
approach of forecasting using alternate futures. That is to say,
we draw up not one single scenario but a range of scenarios taking
into account the various possibilities that might emerge. Rather
than giving one single forecast for any particular future situation
in mission, this method sets forth a range of possible alternate
futures.
Future Scenarios
The creation of scenarios has become a major htmlect of forecasting.
A scenario to the futurist is a detailed fleshing out of all the
implications of a particular specific forecasted situation-either
an event, or a date, or an era, or a subject such as medicine
or computers, or a topic such as the future of the church. A scenario
considers all the various possibilities and then weaves them into
a well-rounded whole. Usually, a scenario needs two or three book
pages, or a minimum of 500 words, to depict its subject. (An example
is found in O'Brien 1980:5-7, which is a 500-word mission scenario
for A.D. 2000). What I am calling a miniscenario is much smaller
and more concise, in its form as an entry in a chronology, it
averages 20 words only. There is great value in both these longer
and these shorter deliberate exercises of the imagination concentrated
on a single point or period or topic or situation in future time.
The genre of literature that we call science fiction has become
expert at writing far more detailed scenarios, from article length
(5,000 words) up to full-length book size (100,000 words). One
thinks of classic scenarios such as those in H. G. Well's The
War of the Worlds (1898), Aldous Huxley's Brave New World
(1931) and George Orwell's satire Nineteen Eighty-Four
(1949).
Christians have been prominent among science fiction authors from
the beginning. In fact, the first description of a voyage to a
lunar utopia was a satirical cosmic scenario entitled The Man
in the Moone published in 1638 and written by Francis Godwin,
bishop of the ancient Celtic see of Llandaff in Wales. In the
same year, independently, John Wilkins, bishop of Chester in England,
published The Discovery of a New World with a discourse
on going to the moon in a flying machine.
The development of scenarios by science fiction writers has reached
vast proportions. Standard analytical and descriptive works like
Nicholls' The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction (1979) list
and describe something like 30,000 distinct stories, novels, articles
and books in the English language alone. Some of these are set
in the distant past, some in the present, but the great majority
of the 30,000 are future scenarios. Each of our ten periods of
the future are described in scores or even hundreds or thousands
of these exercises in speculative imagination. At least 2,000
of these published English-language scenarios deal with religion,
or with Christianity; with other languages, the total is over
4,000. Hundreds of these scenarios handle, or relate to, the subject
of the Christian world mission. No one investigating the future
faces of mission can afford to ignore this staggering quantity
of thought-provoking material.
From another point of view, there are three main
types of forecasted futures: possible futures, probable futures,
and preferable futures. The future is not predestined or deterministic;
to a considerable degree, we can control the future. Catholic
futurist Marry Motte, FMM, even writes of us "creating a
future in mission" (1987). A detailed example of this whole
process of forecasting leading to present action will shortly
be given under the year A.D. 2000.
We turn now to examine in detail our typology of
the future, and the future faces of mission it contains.
After each title below, a phrase in parentheses defines
the title. A number of illustrations are given from Cosmos,
Chaos and Gospel: A Chronology of World Evangelization from Creation
to New Creation (Barrett 1987) where a further 800 future
miniscenarios (averaging 20 words each) will also be found.
1. The immediate future (up to one year from now)
Everybody is interested in this first period. An old Japanese
proverb is said to state: "He who can see three days ahead
will be rich for three thousand years." Probably all of us
engage in this kind of personal planning, whether for the three
days ahead or by keeping a one-year diary of future engagements
or activities.
Literature on the future of the next twelve months is plentiful.
The American Forecaster 1987 (Long 1986) is the fourth
annual edition of a popular paperback series reviewing the future
prospects of everything from jobs to space exploration during
1987. Inter alia, it forecasts that 100 USA banks will
fail in the next twelve months. Is your mission agency aware whether
its money is banked with any institution on the list of likely
or possible failures_
What we have to remember also is that, as recent years have abundantly
shown, even a twelve-month period may bring a number of new and
unanticipated sociopolitical developments and scientific-technological
discoveries which may drastically alter the praxis of mission.
For example, Lumen 2000, the Catholic global television evangelism
agency, anticipates the launching in July 1987 of a first six-language
direct broadcast satellite (DBS) and the related sale in 1987
of 12 million 24-inch portable receiving dishes costing less than
US$600 each. Shortly after, an 800 toll-free telephone call will
then instantly deliver your personal messages to any other DBS-equipped
home on Earth. Can your mission agency afford to ignore such
a development_
Among other breakthroughs that some experts expect very soon are:
pocket minicopiers, pocket telephones capable of reaching any
individual without knowing wherever he may be on earth, multilingual
instantaneous language interpretation, voice-activated speech-recognition
typewriters and word processors, electronic tutors offering programmed
instruction by telephone on any subject at any level of difficulty,
the chemical transfer of knowledge (CTK) via pills and injections,
and so on. All of these are likely to have immediate impact on
the future face of mission.
2. The Near-Term Future (from one to 5 years from now)
This is the future period which probably interests your organization
the most. A vast literature has emerged dealing with organizational
and global five-year plans or assessments (e.g. Coplin & O'Leary
1987). Many church and mission bodies nowadays have produced one
or more five-year plans relating to this period. By this they
hope to mold the future face of their own mission. Some Christian
futurists call this "anticipatory planning"; evangelical
futurist Tom Sine has developed this approach extensively (Sine
1987). It must be heavily data-based; that is, based on all available
secular and religious data, and with a constant stream of new
data coming into the system every week and even if possible every
day.
On the broader Christian scene, this period will certainly see
a large number of major Christian conferences. All the largest
confessional, ecumenical and evangelical bodies have already announced
plans and dates and themes for major world assemblies before 1992.
For many of these, including the Vatican and the Charismatic Renewal
in the Mainline Churches, this will incorporate plans and goals
for what they are increasingly coming to name the Decade of Universal
Evangelization, that is the period 1990-2000.
When we are considering making forecasts in this period, or indeed
in any subsequent period, it is essential to incorporate realism
with regard to developments and also with regard to the opposition
that the Christian world mission has faced down the ages, is facing
at the present, and will continue to face in the future. The future
face of both mission and missions will constantly be confronted
by negative factors both internal and external-hindrances, obstacles,
hostility, corruption, administrative failures, management fiascos,
ecclesiastical crime, losses of nerve, tragedies, catastrophes
and the like.
3. The Middle-Range Future (5-20 years from now)
During this period of the future we can expect to see the flowering
of the Information Civilization. This will be based on the knowledge
explosion, in which the sum total of human knowledge increases
phenomenally every year. Whole new information industries emerge.
Again, the secular literature is enormous (Ferrarotti 1986), because
Periods 3 and 4 are the hunting grounds par excellence of most
futurists today. The third period might well become termed the
Final Thrust of World Evangelization; that is, the period of World
Christianity's last chance to obey Jesus' great commission under
its leadership and on its own terms. After this period, a number
of scenarios see zeal and responsibility for world evangelization
passing from the West to the massively growing charismatic movements
among Chinese, Koreans, Arabs, Latin Americans, Indians, black
Christians and the other third-world indigenous Christians.
This period contains the increasingly quoted final year of the
20th century, A. D. 2000. (Note in passing that the
first day of the 21st century is not January 1, 2000,
but January 1, 2001. Note also that secular futurists are now
calling for the abandoment of the Gregorian calendar and the global
introduction, on that very day, of the new Constant Calendar in
which dates always fall on the same week). Over the past 700 years,
so many predictions have been made about this date that we will
now take time to examine some of them, to construct in detail
our own forecast, and to show at length how alternate scenarios
can be drawn up.
The year A. D. 2000 has long been considered the most likely terminus
ad quem of God's plans for our world. Of history's 300
distinct plans to complete world evangelization, those referring
to A. D. 2000 have numbered at least 70. Fifty of these are still
alive today. Think about:
We ask the question therefore: are any or all of these plans likely
to get anywhere by A. D. 2000_ What is our own forecast, today,
as to whether or not these projects are likely to reach their
goals_
We can analyze this situation by reverting to the three main types
of forecasted futures mentioned earlier: possible, probable and
preferable futures.
Possible Futures. First, do these plans have any possibility
of succeeding_ The futurist must be ruthlessly realistic here.
With regard to the radio/TV plans, after 66 years of existence
the organized international Christian broadcasting agencies today
transmit in no more than 200 of the world's 7,000 languages by
radio, and only in 50 languages by television. It would be logistically
impossible for them to even double these to 400 radio and 100
TV languages over the next 13 years.
With regard to visiting every home on earth, these number 1,700
million homes today, increasing each year by 30 million, due to
the population explosion. Every Home for Christ has so far reached
680 million in the past 30 years. It is at present reaching 500,000
more each month, which is a scant 6 million a year. This means
that unreached homes (as understood by this particular plan) number
over 1 billion, and the goal of reaching them recedes annually
by 24 million. At present rates, reaching the goal is impossible.
A similar analysis can be made of Bold Mission Thrust: to evangelize
the 1.3 billion unevangelized of today's world in the next 13
years means evangelizing 100 million of them every year. Where
are the signs that anything approaching a movement of this magnitude
has yet begun_
Likewise, the Charismatic goal of 1.5 billion new Christians in
13 years seems even less possible, humanly speaking. An increase
of half a billion is certain because it is purely demographic-natural
increase in the existing Christian community (new children born
to Christian families). But the goal still calls for one billion
new converts from outside of today's Christian world. This could
only happen if 77 million converts a year were won out of the
great world religions-Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism-together with
out of Marxism, agnosticism, atheism and so on. While futurists
accept that virtually anything may be possible in the future,
our investigating futurist has some tough questions to pose: Where
is this alleged mass movement going to start_ Are there any indications
that it will_ Are the churches prepared for the violent Hindu
and Muslim neofundamentalist backlash that such massive conversions
are certain to engender_ What about concerted retaliation on the
part of ruthlessly antireligious communist regimes_ Without satisfactory
answers, the futurist may well conclude that these plans are,
in practice, impossible unless certain extraordinary new conditions
are met.
Probable futures. Second, even if these A. D. 2000 goals
were possible, are they probable_ Here the futurist asks a set
of even tougher questions. Some 250 plans for world evangelization
over the past 20 centuries have collapsed or fizzled out within
five, ten or fifteen years of their origin. In almost all cases
Christians and their churches are directly to blame. Causes included:
administrative fiascos, personality clashes, irrelevant doctrinal
disagreements, prayerlessness, apathy, shortages of funds, embezzlements,
absence of workers, rise of other agendas, diversions to other
interests. The overriding problem has been the reluctance of Christians
of all confessions to collaborate meaningfully at the global level.
So we ask: is there any evidence that today's set of 50 plans
in the 1980s are any better coordinated than the grandiose plans
of the 1880s, the 1920s, or the 1950s, all of which fizzled out_
If not, it seems improbable that they will fare any better.
Preferable Futures. Third, even if these A. D. 2000 goals
were both possible and probable, are they preferable or desirable_
Is this the best that Christianity can offer_ Almost all the plans
are products of Western Christianity in the USA or Europe (whose
total Christians number under 36% of the world's Christians).
The futurist could argue that world evangelization is too important
to be entrusted solely to 50 Western plans. It would be far more
preferable if third-world and communist-bloc churches (who together
form 64% of the world's Christians, increase by 0.5% each year)
took over a dominant lead in this respect.
To sum up, our forecast today might well be that these 50 plans
seem barely possible of achievement, that even if possible, the
Christian record in the past makes achievement seem improbable,
and that even if possible and probable, it may well not be preferable
for them to succeed in their present Western-dominated modes.
At the same time, we recognize we must provide a range of alternate
forecasts: under certain circumstances, some of these plans might
well achieve their goals.
What can be done about this unsatisfactory situation_ The value
of our analysis is that it provides us with ways forward. Having
completed our own range of forecasts, we now realize that the
major obstacle is the ignorance all such plans have of each other,
and their failure to work together, or to mesh in any degree,
or to be globally coordinated. A completely new and unprecedented
type of initiative is needed which, while recognize the autonomy
of all existing plans, overcomes this reluctance by bringing them
into close touch with each other in the total global North/South
and East/West context.
Such an initiative is in fact currently being considered by up
to 200 cooperating denominations, boards and agencies from around
the world ranging across the entire spectrum of global Christianity,
networking at the suggestion and invitation of the Southern Baptist
International Board (also known as the Foreign Mission Board).
As its president R. Keith Parks explained in his annual report
to the 130th Session of the Southern Baptist Convention
meeting in St. Louis, Missouri, on June 16, 1987, entitled "The
Cross means World Evangelization":
Some 200 groups have made contact with your Foreign
Mission Board searching for ways of mutually strengthening each
other in the task of evangelizing the world
We are taking
initiatives in convening other Great Commission Christians to
network with them in order to witness to all people more effectively
and more quickly. Each group will maintain its own identity and
integrity while maximizing all our efforts to share the Gospel
more rapidly and more productively with everyone. We must break
out of being consumed with ourselves and become more concerned
about the souls of a world. We must link hearts, hands and minds
with the Christians of this world if we are going to tell everyone
about Jesus Christ.
4. The Long-Range Future (20-100 years, until AD2100)
Leaving A. D. 2000 behind, we move on now to this next period
which covers the first century of what we Christians refer to
as the Third Millennium. There is a massive literature by futurists
on this period (e.g. Taylor 1986). It deals with the new astroculture,
space colonization scenarios, ecocatastrophe scenarios, the evolution
of planetary conciousness, and so on. There is plenty on religion
too. R. Heinlein's novel Revolt in 2100 vividly describes
a future global dictatorship under the guise of a sinister religious
cult, the Prophets, a theocracy enforced by watchful "Angels
of the Lord." Under such a regime, world mission as we understand
it would soon have been ruthlessly stamped out.
All of this literature offers us a gold mine of ideas and concepts.
The challenge to use here is to extract insights from secular
forecasting. All such secular forecasts have ethical, logistical,
theological and missiological implications that we need to carefully
work out and then demonstrate.
Based on secular parallels, it is comparatively easy to envisage
future scenarios in world mission. A recent study is Foresight:
Ten Major Trends That Will Dramatically Affect the Future of Christians
and the Church (Snyder & Runyon 1986). This looks at trends
over the next 50 years. It contains the startling forecast that
the proportion of all ordained ministers and pastors in the USA
who are women, which was 2 percent in 1970, will rise to 25 percent
by A. D. 2000 and will probably reach 50 percent by A. D. 2050.
Think what this one trend alone-reproduced endlessly as it may
well be in U.S.-related churches around the world-might mean for
the future face of mission.
A different scenario by another futurist sees Christianity in
A. D. 2050 dominated worldwide by third-world Pentecostal-charismatic
bodies, spreading like wildfire through unorganized self-replicating
media churches. A third such scenario for A. D. 2080 envisages
the recently converted Chinese and Arab races generating vast
missionary zeal to the point where both launch independent schemes
for total world evangelization completely ignoring the remnants
of Western Christianity with its history of 300 plans, yet resulting
in the converting of the entire world to Christ. The chronology
Cosmos, Chaos and Gospel gives numerous similar miniscenarios
and combines them all into four diagrammatic future faces of mission-overall
scenarios of alternate futures for global Christianity and its
world mission over the future periods from 1987 to A. D. 2100.
5. The Distant Future (100 to 1,000 years from now: AD 2100-3000)
This covers most of the Third Millennium. Our missiological thinking
about this period has recently been given a major stimulus with
the publication of a futuristic secular classic by two scientists
entitled The Third Millenium: A History of the World, A.D.
2000-3000 (Stableford & Langford 1985). This well-illustrated
and convincing book elaborates on the whole range of scientific
and sociopolitical possibilities ahead for our world.
Some futurists set out a maxidemographic scenario in which the
world's population mushrooms out of control, doubling every 30
years to reach 1,000 billion by A. D. 2200. This mass of humanity
then finds itself crammed into 100,000 cities of 10 million people
each, with thousand-storey tower blocks each housing a million
people (J. Blish & N. L. Knight 1967). Others envisage numerous
cities of 100 million each, and even several with populations
over one billion in size. What does all this have to say about
the future face of urban mission and ministry_
6. The Far Distant Future (over 1,000 years hence)
Missiologists skeptical on this subject may be surprised to learn
that even the staid International Review of Missions has
written about this remote future period. In 1949 L. E. Browne,
missionary theologian and Islamist at the Henry Martyn Institute,
India, contributed an article on "The Religion of the World
in A. D. 3000." In it, he forecasted that no religions would
remain for the human race except Christianity and materialism.
Much science fiction gives attention, friendly or hostile, to
this religious dimension. Thus R. Silverberg in Up the Line
presents the crucifixion o fChrist as a popular tourist attraction
for future time-travelers, while G. Kilworth's "Let's Go
to Golgotha" describes all those spectators jeering at the
cross as time-travelers from all past and future epochs. Silverberg
also wrote a satirical story "Good News from the Vatican"
in which disconcerted cardinals discover that they have just elected
as pope an android robot. Another biting scenario is contained
in his story "When We Went To See the End of the World"
(1972), in which jaded time-traveler tourists visit distant cataclysms
and spectacular apocalypses in search of thrills.
Such scenarios are not usually intended as serious forecasts of
the future, let alone predictions or prophecies. They are simply
exercises in the use of the imagination, presenting possible (but
not necessarily probable or preferable) scenarios.
7. The Megafuture (after A. D. 1 million)
This is the sphere of astronomers, astrophysicists, and long-range
evolutionists. In the megafuture, mankind has become Homo Galacticus.
Wells in his 1893, The Man of the Year Million, envisages
them as great unemotional intelligences, large-headed beings retaining
no bodily parts except hands, "floating in vats of amber
nutritive fluid," doing little but think. They form a global
brotherhood of enlightened supermen living in strongholds deep
inside earth whose surface is thickly mantled with ice at absolute
zero temperature.
Among specifically Christian thinkers, the Jesuit paleontologist
Teilhard de Chardin envisaged his climactic Point Omega finally
being reached and consummated at around this general period, to
which we have given the round date of A. D. 2 million, with Christ
as Cosmocrat and Perfector of human evolution.
8. The Gigafuture (after A. D. 1 billion)
Again, this period is another sphere dominated by astrophysicists,
with an enormous literature on the last stages of stellar evolution.
In this period, the scientific concept of entropy (more popularly,
disorder, chaos, disinformation, decline, decay, disintegration,
death) becomes of major importance in the literature describing
the future of the Cosmos. Here we are dealing with multiple scenarios
which, from the astronomer's point of view, are largely extrapolations
from long-term trends that have been going on since the beginning
of creation.
From the Christian point of view, one level-headed scenario envisages
the numerical growth of the church of Jesus Christ from A. D.
2000 (2 times 103 years after Christ) up to A. D. 4
billion (4 times 109 years after Christ). Over this
period the church grows from 2 billion believers (2 times 109)
of Homo Sapiens to one decillion believers (1033 persons,
or one billion trillion trillion) of Homo Universalis. This is
massive church growth to end all church growth. If you as a church
executive were asked to administer such a church, how would you
set about it_ What is the future face of mission likely to resemble
in this period_ What meaning would our very concept "mission"
be likely to have at this time_
9. The Terafuture (after A.D. 1 trillion, up to emergence
of final supermassive black hole)
In the year 1783, English clergyman and astronomer John Mitchell
became the first to propose the existence of black holes-collapsed
stars and galaxies. Subsequently, science, popular science, and
science fiction have all seized on these incredible phenomena,
which number 1016 across today's universe. Astronomers
envisage them growing massively in the future and joining up into
a number of supermassive black holes, finally coalescing as one
monster supermassive black hole coextensive with the still expanding
universe.
What have Christians in general, and missiologists in particular,
got to say about all of this_
The answer to the question "Why should I bother about the
terafuture_" is therefore: Why leave it only to astrophysicists_
Has Christianity nothing unique to say concerning each and every
future period_ Many astrophysicists are, of course, believing
and practicing Christians, and in that sense their research and
writing have already made a specifically Christian contribution.
But have not missiologists also something unique to say about
each and every future period_ At the very least, we could give
some concerted thought, discussion and research to what the meaning
of mission itself is likely to be at this remote time, and what
the future face of mission then is likely to be.
10. The Eschatofuture or Exafuture (after A.D. 1 quintillion)
This final period is the arena par excellence of cosmology, the
branch of physics that deals with the large-scale structure of
the universe. The name cosmologists has only recently become an
acceptable professional term for those astrophysicists who specialize
in data and theories about the beginning and the end of the Cosmos.
Every year, thousands of scientific papers are published on the
origin of the Cosmos, and a smaller number on its ultimate fate.
The starting point here is for us to become familiar with the
mass of materials concerning the divergent scenarios in recent
writings on the end of the Cosmos. This has been summarized very
concisely in an article in Scientific American by four
high-energy physicists/ cosmologists entitled "The Future
of the Universe: a Cosmological Forecast of Events through the
Year 10100" (Discus 1983). They envisage three
alternate end-time scenarios, beginning after 1018
years have passed. Thus either the universe could be (1) open,
with insufficient mass to halt the expansion of the galaxies,
which thus continues forever; or (2) the universe could be exactly
flat, with just enough mass to halt the expansion but not
to reverse it; or (3) the universe could be closed, with
sufficient mass, especially nonluminous mass-cold dark matter
and haloes around galaxies-to halt the expansion and to reverse
it. These three scenarios have been more popularly called: the
Expansion Heat Death scenario, the Motionless Heat Death scenario,
and the Big Crunch of Big Squeeze scenario.
A second mass of materials for us to digest is science fiction
related to this period. This is serious material; a lot of it
is written by professional scientists, even Nobel laureates. Again,
the religious issues are often raised by non-Christians. One such
is the prolific writer Isaac Asimov, a rationalist. His 1956 story
"The Last Questioin" deals with our 10th
period. As the heat death of the universe approaches, humanity
finally builds its own computer-god which htmlires to deity and
duly creates another universe.
The third mass of materials for us to attempt to organize concerns
the Christian eschatological schema of the biblical end-time,
the Eschaton. It is estimated that the Bible contains 8,352 predictive
verses, which is 27% of the entire total (Payne 1973). These can
be summarized under 90 biblical mini-scenarios (Barrett 1987:77-80).
The biblical schema, which centers on the Parousia and the messianic
rule of Christ, contains its own future face of mission. Mission
places an important role in these biblical scenarios. The whole
schema could fit into any one of these ten periods of the
future; it must fit into one; or perhaps it fits into all
ten periods. The biblical Signs of the Times take place in every
era. One way or another, it culminates in the glory of God as
Creator and Redeemer becoming fully unveiled at last, when God
will have summed up all things in Christ.
How to fit these three masses of material into a coherent whole
is a long-term challenge to any serious missiologist.
As mission futurists today, we are not claiming any special insight
into these future epochs. We don't know any better than our nonfuturist
colleagues what will happen in the future. But we should know
better than nonfuturists what could happen. Rather than
overconfidently predicting the exact future face of mission, we
ought to be able to forecast a range of alternate future faces
of both mission and missions that we feel might be possible, probable
or preferable.
Since on our view the future is not predetermined, we can all
influence the future, both personally as individuals and collectively
as the ongoing church of Jesus Christ. We can create the future
of mission. We can have all the satisfaction of personally influencing
the first three of our ten periods of the future, some of us the
first four, all of us collectively perhaps the first six, and
eschatologically in the mystery of the kingdom of God, all of
us can influence the entire range of periods up to the Eschaton
itself.
(Note that a number of science fiction scenarios
are referred to the encyclopedia Nicholls, 1979, which
lists and describes each author's entire output, as do, in varying
degrees, Clark 1978 and Wingrove 1984).
Asimov, I.
1956 "The Last Question", in Nicholls,
1979
Barrett, D.B.
1982 "Evolution of the Futurology of Christianity
and Religion, 1893-1980" in World Christian Encyclopedia,
Nairobie:Oxford University Press, pp. 854-856
1987 Cosmos, Chaos and Gospel: a Chronology of
World Evangelization from Creation to New Creation, Global
Evangelization Movement: The AD2000 series, No. 5, Birmingham,
AL: New Hope Press.
Blish, J. and Knight, N. L.
1967 A Torrent of Faces, Garden City, NY:
Doubleday
Browne, L. E.
1949 "The Religion of the world in AD3000,"
International Review of Missions
Buhlmann, W.
1986 The church of the future: a model for the
year 2001, Maryknolly, NY: Orbis
Clarke, A. C.
1982 2010: Odyssey Two, London: Granada
1986 The Songs of Distant Earth, New York:
Ballantine
Clarke, I. F.
1978 Tale of the Future, from the Beginning to
the Present Day: An Annotated Bibliography, London: Library
Association (chronological listing of 3,800 titles in science
fiction from 1644 to 1976)
Coates, J. F.
1986 Issues Management: How You Can Plan, Organize
and Manage for the Future, Mt. Airy, MD: Lomond Publications
Commission on World Mission and Evangelism (Geneva)
1987 "The Future of Mission," 21 articles
in International Review of Mission, LXXVI, 301 (January)
Coplin, W. D. and O'Leary, M. K.
1987 "World Political/Business Risk Analysis
for 1987," 15:1, Planning Review (Jan.-Feb.), 34-40
(five-year forecasts for each of 85 countries).
Danker, W. J. and Kang, W. J. (eds)
1971 The Future of the Christian World Mission,
Grand Rapids, MI: Eerdmans
Dicus, D. A., et alii
1983 "The Future of the Universe: A Cosmological
Forecast of Events through the Year 10100," Scientific
American, 248(3), 90-101. (A technical but very readable
paper, for a more popular account by a cosmologist, see Rothman
1987).
Ferrarotti, F.
1986 Five scenarios for the year 2000, Westporn,
CT: Greenwood
Heinlein, R.
1940 Revolt in 2000, Chicago: Shasta.
Huxley, A.
1931 Brave New World, New York: Harper &
Row.
Kilworth, G.
1975 "Let's Go to Golgotha", The Gollancz/Sunday
Times Best Science Fiction Stories, London
Knipe, W. (ed.)
1985 Proceedings of the Inter-Church Consultation
on Future Trends in Christian World Mission, February 15-17,
1985, Maryknoll, NY
Long, K.
1986 The American Forecaster 1987, 4th
edition, Philadelphia, PA: Running Press
Marien, M. and Jennings, L. (eds)
1987 What I have learned: thinking about the future
then and now, Westport, CT: Greenwood
Motte, Mary
1986 "A Critical Examination of Mission Today:
Research Project Report, Phase I." Washington, DC: US Catholic
Mission Association (85-page report on survey involving questionnaires
from respondents worldwide)
1987 "Participation and Common Witness: Creating
a Future in Mission," Missiology, XV, 1 (January)
Newbigin, L.
1977 "The Future of Missions and Missionaries,"
Review and Expositor
Nicholls, P. (ed.)
1979 The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction: An Illustrated
A to Z, London: Granada
Nostradamus, Michel de
1555 Centuries (continuously in print for
over 400 years; see Prophecies, New York: Liveright/Norton,
1970).
O'Brien, Bill
1980 Missions for Tomorrow: Nashville, TN:
Convention Press
Orwell, G.
1949 Nineteen Eighty-Four, London: Secker
& Warburg
Parks, R. K.
1987 "The Cross Means World Evangelization,"
Annual Report of Foreign Mission Board, Southern Baptist Convention
Annual
Paton, W.
1942 "The Future of the Missionary Enterprise,"
International Review of Missions
Payne, J.B.
1973 Encyclopedia of Biblical Prophecy: the Complete
Guide to Scriptural Predictions and Their Fulfillment, New
York: Harper & Row
Rahner, K.
1973 The Shape of the Church to Come, London:
SPCK
Ramsey, A. M. and Suenens, L. J.
1971 The Future of the Christian Church, London:
SCM
Rothman, T.
1987 "This is the Way the World Ends: the End
of the Universe, How and When," Discover, 8, 7 (July),
82-93
Shenk, W. R.
1987 "The Future of Mission," in International
Review of Mission, LXXVI, 301 (January)
Silverberg, R.
1969 Up the Line, New York: Ballantine
1971 "Good News from the Vatican," in Nicholls,
1979
1972 "When we went to see the end of the world,"
in Nicholls, 1979
Sine, T.
1987 "Shifting Christian Mission into the Future
Tense," Missiology, XV, 1 (January)
Snyder, H. A. and Runyon, D. V.
1986 Foresight: Ten Major Trends That Will Dramatically
Affect the Future of Christians and the Church, Nashville,
TN: Nelson
Sommerfield, R. E.
1965 The Church of the 21st Century:
Prospects and Proposals, St. Louis, MO: Concordia
Stableford, B. and Langford, D.
1985 The Third Millenium: A History of the World,
AD 2000-3000, New York: A. A. Knopf
Taylor, C. W.
1986 A World 2010: A Decline of Superpower Influence,
Carlisle Barracks, PA: US Army War College
Thompson, F. S.
1933 "The Future of Missions," International
Review of Missions
United Nations Population Division
1986 World Population Prospects: Estimates and
Projections as Assessed in 1984, New York: United Nations
Wells, H. G.
1893 "The Man of the Year Million," in
Nicholls, 1979
1898 The War of the Worlds, London: Heinemann
1899 "A Vision of Judgement", in Nicholls,
1979
1915 "The Story of the Last Trump," in
Nicholls, 1979
Wingrove, D. (ed.)
1984 The Science Fiction Source Book, New
York: Van Nostrand Reinhold (arranges and analyzes 880 authors,
2,500 novels and short stories)
World Future Society
1987 Future Survey Annual 1986, World Future
Society: Washington, DC
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